Thursday, November 30, 2006

Copper steadied above 7,000.00 usd per tonne, having posted gains yesterday on a stronger than expected revision to US third quarter GDP data and on rising oil prices, but analysts said with volumes thin they see choppy trading conditions ahead.

At 1.05 pm, LME (London Metal Exchange) copper for three month delivery was unchanged from yesterday's close at 7,020.00 usd.

'Over the last three days copper's been swishing around quite wildly, a reflection of illiquid markets. It's been pretty barren ... and markets are inching in either direction,' said Standard Bank analyst Mike Skinner.

Copper was boosted yesterday by gains in oil prices and data showing US GDP grew by 2.2 pct in the third quarter against a previous estimate of 1.6 pct growth. It was also boosted by the possibility of supply disruptions at Codelco.

Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, is negotiating a new labour contract with workers, as the old one expires on Dec 31, but the talks have dragged and there has been little news about their progress.

Analysts said while the Codelco talks are limiting the downside today, copper remains under pressure fron concerns over slowing US growth, notwithstanding yesterday's slightly stronger numbers.

Specifically, traders are concerned about the US housing sector, which has seen its biggest decline in over 15 years. They are also eyeing a near 40 pct rise in LME stockpile levels since mid-October.

'People know that next week could be more choppy for copper, it has not really moved that much today. Copper has been dormant for the last couple of months so other metals have caught the eye more,' said Skinner.

Nickel, for example, has been benefiting from critically low stocks and an array of supply problems, with today's announcement from BHP Billiton lifting the metal once again, he said.

BHP said earlier the start-up of its Ravensthorp project in Western Australia has been delayed until the first quarter of 2008 from an original schedule of mid-2007.

'Implications of this news is that the deficit we had for 2007 of 5,000 tonnes is now likely to increase to about 30,000 tonnes,' said UBS Investment Bank analyst Robin Bhar.

He added news earlier this week that CVRD-Inco's Goro nickel project has been delayed until 2008 is also boosting nickel, as are rumblings from Xstrata that its Koniambo project is likely to slip further down the timescale.

LME nickel for three month delivery edged up to 33,500.00 usd against 32,750.00 usd at the close yesterday.

Other metals, except for aluminium, were also up.

Three month zinc was up at 4,375.00 usd against 4,340.00 usd, tin was up at 10,550.00 usd against 10,350.00 usd, aluminium was down at 2,699.50 usd against 2,701.00 usd, while lead was up at 1,650.00 usd against 1,640.00 usd.

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