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Copper may rise next week because of a shortage of concentrate, the raw material used by smelters, and after inventory of the finished metal fell, reducing supply.

Mine production lagged behind smelting capacity in the first eight months of the year, the International Copper Study Group reported earlier this month. Stockpiles monitored by commodity exchanges in London, New York and Shanghai have dropped 3 percent this week to 213,570 metric tons, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

``Copper prices in the near term might yet climb as we understand that inventories downstream may be low,'' said John Meyer, a London-based analyst at Numis Securities Ltd. ``A shortage of concentrate supply is expected to continue.''

Ten of 17 analysts, investors and traders surveyed by Bloomberg yesterday forecast copper will gain next week. Three expected a decline and four little change.

Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange dropped $95, or 1.3 percent, to $6,985 a ton as of 4:43 p.m. local time. A close at that price would mean a 2.4 percent decline this week. Prices gained 5.2 percent last week.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper for March delivery fell 1.1 percent to $3.16 a pound. Copper for delivery in January on the Shanghai Futures Exchange slipped 0.6 percent to close at 66,030 yuan ($8,434) a ton. Chinese prices include 17 percent tax and 2 percent duty.

Mine Disruption

Disruptions at mines including Chile's Escondida, the world's largest for copper, resulted in ``essentially unchanged'' production growth during the eight months, the Lisbon-based ICSG said last month. At the same time, demand for the metal to make wires and plumbing expanded.

Mine output is trailing smelting capacity growth in China and India, said BHP Billiton, the world's largest miner and Escondida's owner.

``The expectation is that the copper-concentrate market will be tight,'' BHP Billiton Chief Executive Officer Charles ``Chip'' Goodyear said on Nov. 29 at a shareholders meeting in Brisbane, Australia. ``Part of it is lower production from copper-concentrate producers.''

Stockpiles tracked by the LME rose 0.9 percent to 156,725 tons, the exchange said today in a daily report. Exchange data showed that 12,475 tons, or 8 percent of total stockpiles monitored by the exchange, may be due for delivery and aren't freely available. Those so-called ``canceled warrants'' have more than doubled since the end of October.

`Supporting Factor'

The gain is ``a supporting factor'' for prices, said Catherine Virga, a New York-based analyst at CPM Group. Still, any advance will be limited by declines in imports to China, the world's largest copper user, she said.

China's copper-concentrate imports tumbled 46 percent in October from a year earlier, and copper purchases dropped 0.9 percent, the Beijing-based Customs General Administration said Nov. 27.

Imports fell mainly because there wasn't much material to be bought, said Adam Rowley, an analyst at Macquarie Bank Ltd. in London.