Monday, December 04, 2006

Copper fell below the key 7,000 usd a tonne level after London Metal Exchange (LME) stocks rose again and as the market remained pressured by concerns about contracting demand in the US following Friday's much weaker than expected manufacturing data.

At 12.57 pm, LME copper for three month delivery edged down to 6,987.50 usd a tonne against 7,000.00 usd at the close Friday.

'Copper is still under pressure, we've fallen below the key 7,000 usd level, certainly the initial indication suggests the weak manufacturing data is still casting a shadow,' said UBS Investment Bank analyst Robin Bhar.

US data out Friday showed the Institute for Supply Management's index of manufacturing fell to 49.50 in November from 51.2 in October, falling below the 50 mark to indicate contraction in the sector.

A contracting manufacturing sector does not bode well for metals demand, especially as it comes amid an already contracting housing sector in the US, another key driver of demand, analysts noted.

BNP Paribas analyst David Thurtell said while the weaker US dollar partly offset the impact of the poor ISM data on Friday, it cannot make up for a decline in demand.

'The bottom line is that if copper etc. isn't needed in construction and manufacturing, modestly cheaper yen or euro prices won't make enough difference to demand,' he said.

'Besides, the metals are only 'cheaper' outside of the US: the US is still a big -- direct and indirect -- consumer of these trends,' he added.

Copper was also under pressure from yet another gain in LME stockpiles. Data out earlier showed LME copper stocks rose by 4,500 tonnes to total 161,225 tonnes. Stocks have now risen around 40 pct since mid-October.

Elsewhere, nickel edged lower after hitting a new all-time high of 34,300 usd on Friday, with analysts saying the fall in nickel prices was just a correction.

'We would look to buy into weakness those metals that are tight from a supply/demand perspective such as zinc, nickel, tin and lead where stocks are low as well,' said Bhar.

Aluminium edged lower after spiking more than 1 pct on Friday ahead of the December options expiry this Wednesday. An options expiry refers to the date when options holders can buy or sell a futures contract at a specific price.

'Aluminium is in the grip of a technical squeeze ... it's not (moving) on a fundamental basis,' said Bhar.

LME nickel for three month delivery edged down to 33,650.00 usd from 33,900.00 usd at the close Friday, while aluminium fell to 2,809.50 usd from 2,818.00 usd.

Other metals were up.

Three month zinc was up at 4,440.00 usd against 4,400.00 usd, tin was down at 10,675.00 usd against 10,700.00 usd, while lead rose to 1,732.50 usd from 1,695.00 usd.

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