Tuesday, November 14, 2006

Copper prices edged up as the market consolidated after falling below the critical 7,000 usd a tonne level on Friday, but analysts warned the outlook remains shaky.

At 1.45 pm, LME copper for three-month delivery rose to 6,965.00 usd a tonne against 6,935.00 usd at the close yesterday. Other base metals were also up.

Zinc rose to 4,265.00 usd against 4,245.00 usd, aluminium edged up to 2,732.50 usd against 2,714.00 usd, nickel rose to 30,200.00 usd against 29,900.00 usd while tin climbed to 9,975.00 against 9,925.00 usd.

Lead bucked the trend, however, falling to 1,530.00 usd against 1,570.00 usd.

Copper closed slightly higher yesterday but failed to breach the key 7,000 usd a tonne level, and analysts said the fact that it has failed to breach that level again today is worrying.

BaseMetals.com analyst Martin Hayes said copper was taking slight relief from the fact that LME stocks did not rise as much as expected today, and from yesterday's modest recovery.

'For today the mood is just a little bit better but I think there's a wariness that it won't take much to tip copper back into minus ... there are very few robust buyers around,' he said.

The LME said today stocks monitored in its warehouses rose by another 625 tonnes to 151,925 tonnes. The rise was slightly less than the thousand tonne rises seen over the past few days.

Overall stocks have increased by 42,325 tonnes or 39 pct from a recent low of 109,600 tonnes, however, and some analysts speculate supply may exceed demand next year.

'With copper below the 7,000 usd a tonne level and with weak current fundamentals, a fact underlined by the BME which said a small surplus had emerged ... we would not rule out a test of support at 6,400-6,450 usd a tonne,' said UBS Investment Bank analyst Robin Bhar.

Man Financial analyst Ed Meir pointed out that if copper 'resumes its decline, it is bound to cast its shadow on the rest of the group, putting the sustainability of their recoveries in doubt'.

He added that 'with fund money concentrated primarily in the far more liquid copper and aluminium markets' he cannot see zinc, lead, nickel and tin leading the group higher without their participation.

No comments: