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Annual copper mine capacity over the 2005-to-2009 period is projected to grow at an average rate of 4.6% a year to 19.9 million metric tons by 2009, an increase of 3.3 million metric tons from 2005, the International Copper Study Group said in a report released Tuesday.

Of the total increase, copper in concentrate production is expected to rise by 1.8 million metric tons, or by an average annual rate of 3.1%, and solvent extraction-electrowinning production by 1.5 million metric tons, or by an average annual rate of 10.2%.

Smelter capacity is projected to reach 17.5 million metric tons by 2009, an increase of 1.2 million metric tons, or 7.5%, from that in 2005.

During the first two years of the projection, 2006-07, an annual smelter growth rate of 2.2% is projected to exceed a corresponding annual concentrate growth rate of 1.7% a year.

However, the ICSG said the situation will be reversed in 2008-09, when concentrate capacity growth will exceed smelter capacity growth.

A projected average annual smelter capacity growth rate for the period 2005-09 of 1.8% is 1.3% lower than the projected growth in concentrate capacity, the group said.

"Assuming that smelter capacity utilization rates rise from the current low level to their historical average, smelter capacity over the entire forecast period should be sufficient to treat additional concentrate production," the ICSG said. "There could, however, be short-term shifts in the concentrate supply-demand balance owing to the unequal distribution of growth."

In 2009, the ICSG expects world refinery capacity to reach 23.3 million metric tons, an increase of 3 million metric tons from that in 2005.

About 1.53 million metric tons of the expansion is expected to come from electrolytic refineries and 1.48 million metric tons is expected to come from electrowinning, the ICSG said.

The average annual growth rate in the period 2005-09 for electrolytic refineries is projected to be 2.3%, slightly above the projected growth in smelter capacity. The annual growth rate for electrowinning capacity - at the refinery level - is expected to be 10%.

The projected developments include existing capacity at mines and plants that are currently on care and maintenance or are temporarily cut back, also known as swing capacity.

According to ICSG research, this swing capacity is currently minimal for mines.

With the definitive closure of two U.S. plants at the end of 2005 that had been on care and maintenance since 2001, total idled capacity for smelters declined to 180,000 metric tons and idled refinery capacity fell to 370,000 metric tons.