Friday, October 20, 2006

Copper edged up as gains in other metals, specifically nickel, supported the metal and helped offset concerns over the economic slowdown in the US following weak data yesterday.

Nickel rose to a new record peak today above 32,000 usd a tonne. The metal 'remains plagued by an acute stock shortage,' The LME reported another decline in nickel stocks today, saying they fell 96 tonnes to 4,836 tonnes.

Nickel stocks are equivalent to less than one day of global consumption. Further, the metal was plagued earlier this month by a strike at Inco's Goro nickel project in New Caledonia.

The strike has since been resolved but Adams said 'even if production recovers in New Caledonia, the market will still remain tight ... which means all eyes will no doubt remain on LME stocks'.

Turning to copper, which has become the laggard of the base metals complex recently, Adams said in spite of its modest gain at present, he believes the metal is holding back the complex.

The LME said today copper stocks in its warehouses jumped by 2,550 tonnes to 112,275 tonnes, but analysts noted stocks remain extremely tight overall. They are equivalent to less than three days of global consumption.

Copper's problem, they said, is more that it has fallen behind the other metals in the complex recently in part because it is the most sensitive to the economic statistics coming out of the US.

Yesterday, US data showed a shock fall to -0.7 in the Philly Fed business activity index for October, which measures manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region. Analysts had expected a rise to +7.8.

Man Financial analyst Ed Meir despite tight fundamentals, funds are 'be holding back from piling back into copper' as they prefer to keep a 'wary eye on the largely neutral to negative economic stats coming out of the US'.

At 2.05 pm, LME copper for 3-month delivery
climbed to 7,685.00usd a tonne against 7,660.00 usd at the close yesterday, while nickel surged to 32,250.00 against 31,700.00 usd.

Zinc climbed to 3,980.00 usd against 3,945.00 usd, aluminium was flat at 2,741.50 usd, tin edged down to 9,925.00 usd against 9,950.00 usd, while lead was up at 1,507.50 usd usd against 1,500.00 usd.

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