Saturday, September 23, 2006

Copper futures in New York ended firmer in modest dealings on Friday as the market extended its reversal from an 8-1/2 week low on Wednesday but still held to its near three-month range, sources said.

"We entered slightly into a gap above $3.4650, but some profit-taking going into the close limited the move. As long as we settle below that level, we're still kind of on the defensive," said Scott Meyers, senior trading analyst with Pioneer Futures.

"There is a gap that needs to be filled up to $3.5350, so we will see how that plays out next week," Meyers added.

Copper for December delivery ended up 1.20 cents at at $3.4435 a lb on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division after dealing between $3.39 and $3.4950.

Spot September gained 1.75 cents to finish out at $3.4395, while back month contracts posted gains of 0.15 to 1.15 cents.

COMEX final copper volume was estimated at 10,000 lots against Thursday's official count at 15,035 lots.

"The open interest in the market is very low, so that tells you that there does not seem to be a lot of big-time shorts in there, so that's probably why we're holding up the way we are," said one broker at a New York trading house.

As of Sept. 21, open interest in the COMEX copper market grew 424 lots to 68,516 lots.

Despite copper's technical rebound this week, analysts were quick to point out that prices were still trading within a wide band with concerns over U.S. economic growth weighing on the upside, while low stock levels in exchange-registered warehouses were seen limiting the declines.

Drawdowns in exchange-registered warehouses underpinned the early buying on Friday after inventory data out of London showed a 2,050-tonne decline, leaving total stocks at 121,275 tonnes -- less than three days worth of global consumption.

Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell to 43,019 tonnes in the week ended Thursday, from 44,944 tonnes the week prior.

Chinese copper prices were expected to rise as Beijing's ban on duty-free imports of refined copper for some copper products would raise prices for imported metal, traders said on Thursday.

Upcoming labor contract renewals at major miners could disrupt supplies if talks between the two sides break down.

"Low stocks and the potential for supply disruptions is still seen supporting sentiment with consumer/investor buying being noted into price dips," said Robin Bhar, metals analyst with investment bank UBS.

The dollar weakened against the euro on Friday after economic data this week pointed to a slowdown in the U.S. economy, reinforcing expectations U.S. interest rates have peaked.

A weaker dollar typically makes dollar-denominated assets like copper less expensive for overseas investors.

LME three-months copper eased $10 at the close to $7,550 a tonne.

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